A poll carried out on behalf of CNN was released yesterday. The Result of one of the questions is making all the news headlines. Apparently, a majority of Americans do not believe that Donald Trump can win an election in 2020. But does this tell the whole story? Or is there something more to it?
This poll states that 54% of Americans polled don't believe The Donald can win the next big election… The same poll was carried out by the same company at exactly the same period into the presidency of Barack Obama, guess what % thought the same? That's right! 54%!
In fairness to CNN, they do point this out in their article, but is it the content or the headlines that get read more?
In fact, Bill Clinton, in the same poll at the same point in his presidency did even worse than Obama and Trump, yet went on to win a second term, too. This shows us a major flaw in the polling.
While the company who carried out the polling, SSRS, followed almost exact demographics in weighting and sampling their respondents (age, race, college, voter intention for a party), they appear not to have counted a key factor…Real likelihood of voting!
We know full well that older people vote a heck of a lot more than younger people. Despite the major media attention “the kids” have been getting, most of them will not vote…The same can't be said of the older generations who are more likely to vote conservative.
Based on the poll, don't be surprised by a Trump landslide!